基于响应面法的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测模型研究

姜锦涛, 梁守才, 徐派, 付晓慧, 孙皓, 田宇婷, 杨海燕

doi:10.16577/j.issn.1001-1560.2024.0159

材料保护 >

2024 , Vol. 57 >Issue 7: 127 - 135

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16577/j.issn.1001-1560.2024.0159

研究篇

基于响应面法的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测模型研究

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(辽河油田油气集输公司, 辽宁盘锦 124010)

姜锦涛(1986－),高级工程师,硕士,研究方向为管道完整性管理,电话:19841327010,E-mail: 2110569358＠qq.com

收稿日期: 2023-10-12

修回日期: 2024-01-19

录用日期: 2024-01-25

网络出版日期: 2024-08-16

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Research on Prediction Model of External Corrosion Rate for Buried Pipelines Based on Response Surface Methodology

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(PetroChina Liaohe Oilfield Oil and Gas Gathering and Transportation Company, Panjin 124010, China)

JIANG Jintao (1986－), Senior Engineer, Master's Degree, Research Focus: Pipeline Integrity Management,Tel.: 19841327010, E-mail: 2110569358＠qq.com

Received date: 2023-10-12

Revised date: 2024-01-19

Accepted date: 2024-01-25

Online published: 2024-08-16

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摘要

埋地输油管道外腐蚀速率的影响因素非常复杂，且各影响因素之间相互影响，很难对管道的腐蚀速率进行准确预测。而响应面分析法能够对各影响因素之间的交互作用进行分析，为此，考虑埋地输油管道外围土壤中pH 值、Cl－浓度、NO3－浓度和SO42－浓度4 种影响因素，利用响应面法设计试验并建立土壤环境下的管道腐蚀速率预测模型，并对模型进行回归和方差分析，评估其有效性和准确性。将建立好的响应面法预测模型与线性回归、PSO-BP 预测模型进行对比，结果表明:基于响应面法的预测模型失拟项差异不显著，而模型本身通过了显著性检验，说明模型可信；与其他2 种模型相比，响应面法的决定系数R2为0.941 8，决定系数最大，其平均绝对误差、平均相对误差和均方根误差最小，分别为0.020 5、4.53%和0.027 7，验证了响应面法预测模型预测的准确性，可以较为准确地评估管道外腐蚀速率，为管道的保护措施和维护计划的制定提供可靠的依据。

关键词： 埋地管道; 腐蚀速率; 预测模型; 影响因素; 响应面法

本文引用格式

姜锦涛, 梁守才, 徐派, 付晓慧, 孙皓, 田宇婷, 杨海燕 . 基于响应面法的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测模型研究[J]. 材料保护, 2024 , 57(7) : 127 -135 . DOI: 10.16577/j.issn.1001-1560.2024.0159

Abstract

The factors influencing the external corrosion rate of buried oil pipelines are extremely complex, and the interactions between these factors make accurate prediction of the pipeline corrosion rate challenging.Response surface methodology can analyze the interactions between various influencing factors.Therefore, this study considered four affecting factors: pH value of the soil surrounding buried oil pipelines, Clconcentration, NO3－ concentration and SO42－ concentration.Experiments were designed using response surface methodology to establish a prediction model for pipeline corrosion rates in soil environments.Regression and variance analyses were performed to evaluate the model’s effectiveness and accuracy.The established response surface methodology prediction model was compared with linear regression and PSO-BP prediction models.Results showed that the difference of lack-of-fit terms in the prediction model based on response surface methodology was not significant, and the model itself passed the significance test, demonstrating its reliability.Compared to the other two models, the response surface methodology model had the highest coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.941 8, and the smallest mean absolute error, mean relative error and root mean square error,which were 0.0205,4.53%and 0.027 7,respectively.These results verified the accuracy of the response surface methodology prediction model, showing that it could accurately assess the external corrosion rate of pipelines and provide a reliable basis for developing protection measures and maintenance plans for pipelines.

Key words： buried pipelines; corrosion rate; prediction model; influencing factors; response surface methodology

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